Sunday, February 21, 2016

Budget 2016 - My forecast

Its time for Budget again.
This budget is so important to India ahead of GST implementation. Already last year budget has subsumed CESS from Service Tax and Central Excise and increased the tax rate to 14% & 12.5% to be in line with GST tax rate.
Since the GST tax rate is expected to be 17-19% I hope this Budget will further raise the tax rate this year, may be around 16% for both the taxes.

I also expect some subsidies, exemptions may be called off to experience the real GST regime. However these changes if implemented, will certainly dent our economy unless GST is rolled out. This is because of CST credit disallowable now but Tax rates are increased which directly impact the end user with increased cost.
The reduced rate for necessities will be around 12% as against the present 2% against C Form. If this hike is implemented this year, then the manufacturing sector will suffer a lot. But If the GST is rolled out, then the tax rate will not be a problem as the eligible purchase can have the facility of set off by the way of Input tax credit.

So, according to me, the major impact will be, if the tax rates are increased ahead of GST and the GST was not implemented this year, then the Industries will get a great dent in their growth, or even suffer a lot and shut down business.

As a tentative I assume, GST roll out may be either by Oct 2016 or April 2017, as the possibility of roll out by April 2016 is ruled out.

Service tax will get fee few more services in to its fold to expand the taxation area, and probability of C Forms discontinue is also expected.

Many incentive schemes, exemptions, discounts may be revised or called off in this budget for the smooth sailing into the GST regime.

As for as Income tax is concerned, MAT will have a major role in this year's budget. Individuals exemption limit may be increased little, say 2.25 lacs.

As a part of curbing unaccounted transactions, the charges towards Debit/Credit cards may be withdrawn.

Lets discuss these dreams with the actual facts post-budget once again.

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